Global Energy Scenarios 2026: Pathways to resilience

Rystad Energy's latest Global Energy Scenarios report for 2026 reveals a projected peak in global dependence on imported energy by 2034, driven by intensifying energy security concerns and the rapid adoption of electrification technologies. The report examines three potential future scenarios following two significant energy crises within a five-year span, including Russia's war in Ukraine and the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, both of which severely impacted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Energy import dependency is expected to vary depending on the pace of change, with Russia's influence on Europe's gas imports diminishing from 36% in 2021 to around 7.5% by 2025, while US LNG supply increased to 21%. However, the competition between Europe and Asia for LNG cargoes may leave Europe with insufficient winter stockpiles and Asia with inadequate supply.

Oil infrastructure, such as pipelines, crude on water, storage, and demand response, has played a crucial role in buffering the system. The conflicts have also affected diesel supplies, with US diesel prices soaring above $100 per barrel due to reduced Middle East supply and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. Governments have taken various measures to protect consumers, including cutting fuel taxes, subsidies, and price caps, as well as implementing demand-reduction measures and structural changes.

Since February 2026, nearly 100 countries have adopted these strategies, with 26 in Europe and Asia focusing on electrification. The system's resilience has been bolstered by decades of investment, innovation, and diversification, allowing it to better absorb the current crisis and buy valuable time. The report introduces the Pragmatism scenario for 2050, which assumes a gradual strengthening of current policies, balancing affordability, energy security, and technology costs.

This scenario predicts a significant increase in primary energy demand to 702 exajoules (EJ), with liquids demand decreasing by 2.2% per year and gas demand declining by 0.9% per year. Import dependence among countries is projected to decrease from 40% to 26% by 2050, compared to 33% in Fossil first and 14% in Climate first scenarios.

Each pathway involves trade-offs, with Fossil first being less costly upfront due to lower electrification capital requirements, while Climate first entails higher initial investment and annual costs averaging $3.8 trillion from 2026 to 2050. Electricity is increasingly becoming the primary carrier of useful energy, overtaking oil in 2025, and is projected to supply more useful energy than coal, oil, and gas combined by midcentury.