Five ways El Niño is affecting the weather around the world

El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by the warming of Pacific Ocean waters, has been intensifying for months and is already altering weather patterns worldwide. Countries such as Indonesia, India, and the United States are grappling with droughts, floods, and heatwaves, consistent with predictions about how extreme weather events will intensify due to the phenomenon. The World Meteorological Agency anticipates the record-breaking El Niño will continue to strengthen and persist until at least 2027.

In Indonesia, known for typically drier and hotter conditions during El Niño years, the country is facing its worst wildfire season since 2015. Since January, more than 895,657 hectares of land, nearly six times the size of Greater London, have burned, which is almost twice the area burned last year without El Niño's influence. The wildfires have resulted in school closures and a surge in hospital admissions across Indonesia, with millions exposed to toxic haze, and around 175,000 people suffering from respiratory illnesses, including toddlers.

In the eastern Pacific, where El Niño typically enhances hurricane activity, the season has been exceptionally active. As of now, there have been 22 named storms and 12 hurricanes, including 10 major hurricanes, which surpasses the typical number for an entire average season with two months remaining. One hurricane even experienced rapid intensification, producing wind gusts of 180 mph, fueled by the exceptionally warm ocean waters generated by El Niño.

This year has also seen three hurricanes simultaneously churning in the same basin, a rare occurrence for the first time since 2015.

Conversely, the Atlantic Ocean has remained relatively calm due to El Niño's tendency to increase wind shear, which disrupts storm formation. Only one hurricane, Isaias, has made landfall, the latest on record in the satellite era, forming on September 11. Historically, by this date, the Atlantic would have seen around 10 named storms, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.

This year, however, only eight tropical storms have formed, including Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, and Hanna. The drier and warmer trend has also extended to India, where monsoon rainfall is 13% below average. While the Indian Meteorological Department considers this still within normal limits, the overall average does not account for the significant rainfall variations across India.

The east and northeast regions experienced around 26% less rainfall than average, placing them in exceptional drought conditions, compared to 24% less rainfall in southern states. Even where rainfall was closer to average, it did not fall continuously as usual during the monsoon but alternated between prolonged dry spells and extreme rainfall, stressing agriculture yields.

Further west in the Pacific, eastern China and Japan have also experienced storm activity. With 10 tropical cyclones forming in the western Pacific Ocean, the highest number since 1966, the warmer Pacific waters have shifted cyclone formation further east, away from Japan and eastern China. However, this prolonged exposure to warmer waters allows storms to gain more energy, potentially intensifying into typhoons before making landfall.

Scientists predict that additional typhoons are likely this year, posing further threats to Japan or eastern China.