China’s CXMT shares fall 7.8% despite profit forecast

Recent wire reports indicate that US soybeans may gain a price advantage in the Chinese market, despite limited interest in the country's auctions, according to sources. On October 13, Sinograin, a Chinese grain trader, sold 209,904 metric tons of soybeans at an average transaction price of 4,298.4 yuan/mt ($642/mt) during a state reserve auction. Another auction of 504,000 mt is expected on October 20.

Chinese buyers have shown weak interest in the auctions, possibly due to sufficient supplies through January 2027, as stated by a trader, and poor Chinese crush margins, calculated at minus $25/mt. Additional delivery and inland logistics costs also deter buyers, as reported by another source. Platts-assessed gross crush margins stood at minus $19.52/mt on October 15, down $4.25/mt from the previous day.

While the outright price of the soybeans appears competitive, buyers must account for delivery and inland transportation costs, which might make the purchase less attractive. Some US traders expressed mixed views on whether China's auctions create opportunities for US soybeans. One trader in the CIF New Orleans market noted that the last tender failed, while another in the FOB Gulf market believed that popular auctions would generate opportunities.

US soybean sales confirmed by the USDA include 470,000 mt for delivery to China in the 2026-27 marketing year and 330,000 mt on October 15. Platts assessed November shipment SOYBEX FOB New Orleans at $505.23/mt on October 15 and FOB Santos soybean contract at $517.38/mt. CFR China soybean month-one November shipment is at $582.30/mt. Brazilian traders believe the US opportunity is seasonal and not a significant long-term impact on Brazilian soybeans, attributing it to a state-driven rebalancing.