India to keep Russian oil imports near current levels after Trump waiver

The Trump administration has temporarily waived threats of up to 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil, offering India a brief reprieve. However, this concession leaves India vulnerable to renewed US pressure, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). The think tank warns that the waiver could be withdrawn at any time, potentially reviving the tariff threat as leverage in trade negotiations.

GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava urges India to safeguard its energy security, purchase oil on commercial terms, and brace for possible future US pressure. The waiver, issued on October 16 under the Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, came after the legislation was enacted on September 18. The think tank suggests the reversal underscores the uncertainty of US trade policy, as Washington issues threats but backs off when enforcing them conflicts with its own interests.

Possible reasons for the waiver include the US's own energy needs, its tariff truce with China, and the risk of derailing trade talks with India. The waiver does not remove the underlying tariff threat; Washington has merely put the penalties on hold under Section 115 of the Graham Act. The Trump administration can re-impose the threat at any time, creating ongoing uncertainty for India's oil sourcing.