IMF says Japan to fall to sixth in world GDP rankings behind India, Britain

The International Monetary Fund has forecast that Japan's nominal gross domestic product will be surpassed by India and Britain in 2027, causing Japan to drop from fourth to sixth place in the global rankings, according to Kyodo News. Japan has been ranked fourth behind the US, China, and Germany since 2023. The IMF's GDP projections were released this month, with the yen's ongoing weakness against the US dollar and sluggish Japanese economic growth cited as factors.

Japan's projected nominal GDP for 2026 is US$4.3419 trillion and US$4.4676 trillion for 2027, based on an exchange rate of around 158 yen to the dollar. India's GDP is anticipated to reach US$4.5211 trillion in 2027, jumping from sixth to fourth place globally. Britain's economy is projected to overtake Japan in 2027, with the IMF forecasting British GDP at US$4.4889 trillion in 2027.

Although Japan's real economic growth is expected to be 0.7% in both 2026 and 2027, India's economy is projected to expand by 7% annually for both years. The report highlights India as one of the fastest-growing major economies, fueled by resilient domestic demand and robust services activity. Britain's economy is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027.

Japan, once holding the No. 2 spot globally, fell to third place in 2010 due to China's rapid growth and was overtaken by Germany in 2023, slipping to fourth place.