Here's What History Says Q4 Will Bring for Chipotle (CMG) Stock
Key PointsDuring the fourth quarters of 2020 and 2023, Chipotle’s stock posted double-digit returns.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has been a pioneer in the fast-casual dining industry, known for fresh, customizable food, fast service, and reasonable prices. However, in the fourth quarter of 2022, the stock price fell by over 4% and is now down 18% from its June 2024 record high. This follows a pattern of single-digit declines in Q4s of 2021, 2022, 2024, and 2025, but double-digit gains in 2020 and 2023.
So far in 2026, the stock has fallen more than 50% since the summer of 2024, when it traded at a P/E ratio of 73.2, which was extremely high given the strong net income growth. Weak industry conditions and higher costs due to inflation have hurt profitability, with same-store sales declining 1.7% in 2025, but improving to gains in Q1 and Q2 of 2026.
To turn things around, Chipotle has been investing in menu enhancements, in-store dining experience, digital reach, and marketing. Despite being more attractive with a P/E ratio near a 10-year low, the stock still has to compete with high-growth artificial intelligence stocks and faces slower earnings growth expectations of just 8.6% per year from 2025 to 2028.
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