Amin Adam warns of financial repression as short-term T-Bill yields fall

Former Finance Minister Dr. Mohammed Amin Adam has raised concerns that Ghana's increasing reliance on Treasury bills may put the government at risk of refinancing challenges, especially as substantial domestic debt repayments are due in 2027. Treasury bill holdings surged from GH¢133.9 billion in January to GH¢165 billion in July 2026, an increase of GH¢31.2 billion, or 23.3%.

As a result, bills rose from 39.3% to 41.6% of domestic debt, surpassing the Medium-Term Debt Strategy's recommended range of 15% plus or minus five percentage points. The analysis also revealed that the stock of 364-day Treasury bills nearly doubled, from GH¢49.3 billion to GH¢98.4 billion, while the stocks of 91-day and 182-day bills dropped by GH¢11.6 billion and GH¢6.3 billion, respectively.

Dr. Amin Adam pointed out that while the shift to longer-term instruments extended the bill portfolio, it concentrated a significant repayment volume around mid-2027. He cautioned that a government needing to refinance a massive stock every few months is exposed to auction undersubscription, abrupt yield repricing, and liquidity shocks.

Dr. Amin Adam suggested predictable issuance schedules, stronger benchmark-bond markets, and a transparent liability-management framework to mitigate the risk of refinancing pressures disrupting public finances.