War drains 2bn barrels of Middle East oil output — Kpler

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant reduction in oil production, with a total of over 2 billion barrels lost from crude oil and condensate production, as reported by energy intelligence firm Kpler. According to their latest findings, approximately 5 million barrels per day of output remain offline as of October 6.

Iran is identified as a major contributor to these production outages, and the conflict has persistently disrupted regional oil supplies. Despite some recovery in exports, total Middle Eastern crude oil and condensate exports have reached pre-war levels, thanks to increased production in the UAE and a potential rise in Saudi Arabia's output.

Saudi Arabia's crude production near its 12 million barrels per day capacity was observed towards the end of September, while exports averaged 9.1 million barrels per day in the week of September 21, marking the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, Kpler estimates that around 5 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern crude oil and condensate production is still offline, compared to February 2026 levels.

The threat of further attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure due to Houthi strikes has raised concerns about the country's ability to sustain higher production levels in the coming weeks.