Soaring commodity prices influenced our 2026 revised growth forecast of 5.7 % for Ghana – IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently raised its economic growth forecast for Ghana to 5.7% by the end of 2026, citing soaring global commodity prices, particularly gold, as a significant factor in its decision. Director of the IMF's African Department, Zeine Zeidane, explained that increased commodity prices could enhance export earnings, improve the trade balance, and support economic expansion.

Zeidane's statement came during a release of the IMF's Regional Economic Outlook, where he also mentioned that Ghana's impressive performance in the first half of the year influenced the revised forecast. The IMF expects this momentum to persist in the coming months. The Director further praised Ghana's fiscal performance despite recent challenges from energy price fluctuations.

The IMF's forecast, raised on October 13, 2026, represents a 1.1 percentage point increase from the 4.6% projected in April. Inflation, which was initially expected to peak at 7.9% by year-end, has been revised downwards to 4.8%, falling below the government's and the Bank of Ghana's target range of 6% to 10%. With September inflation at 5.2%, the IMF's forecast suggests that price pressures will continue to ease by the end of the year.

If this projection comes true, Ghana will achieve a second consecutive year of single-digit inflation at year-end, following a similar outcome in 2025.