Smartphone shipments plummet as memory crisis pumps up prices

Smartphone sales dropped by nearly one-fifth in the third quarter of the year due to a memory shortage that has also driven up prices for consumer electronics. Preliminary estimates from IDC and Omdia show a 22% and 20% year-over-year decline, respectively. Memory costs have increased by around 350% since last year and are still on the rise, putting pressure on vendors' profits and prompting them to raise prices and reduce the number of low-end devices in the market.

IDC estimates that smartphone shipments reached 255.3 million units, and warns that the decline is not over yet. According to Nabila Popal, IDC's senior research director, the downturn is finally happening, but the worst is yet to come.

Memory inflation has started to slow down slightly, with a low double-digit increase in Q3 compared to a 50 to 100% jump in previous quarters. However, costs remain high for other crucial components, making the situation more challenging. Omdia estimates that the shrinking market has further divided the competitive landscape, with Samsung and Apple now accounting for about 45% of global shipments, up nearly 8 percentage points from last year. Rising costs are particularly hard on more price-sensitive segments.

Omdia still predicts a 12% fall in global smartphone shipments in 2026, followed by another 6% decline in 2027. They do not expect any relief from the memory crisis until at least 2028, as there will still be a significant gap between demand and supply. The first signs of improvement would be when memory prices stabilize, and Omdia is still waiting for that.

Omdia principal analyst Runar Bjorhovde told The Register that buyers may get used to paying more, which could create opportunities for higher-value devices. The firm previously outlined how phone makers are adapting to the rising cost of memory parts, such as using cheaper display panels, sensors, or radio frequency (RF) modules.

IDC also expects a lasting shift toward higher costs and believes that vendors adapting their products and pricing will be best placed to gain market share.