PAS dalam kedudukan lebih kukuh daripada Umno di Melaka, kata penganalisis

Analyst Wong Chin Huat believes PAS is in a stronger position than Umno in Melaka, despite PAS only having strength in the northern and eastern strongholds that are already outdated. Wong, from Universiti Sunway, noted that perceptions of PAS's strength were limited to areas where they dominated before, and that those regions have become outdated.

He referred to the 2022 General Election (PRU15) results, where Perikatan Nasional (PN) — which now includes PAS — won far more parliamentary seats than Barisan Nasional (BN) in Perak, Selangor, and Melaka. In Melaka, BN led by Umno failed to win any parliamentary seats, while Pakatan Harapan and PN each won three. Wong attributed this to new voters, a significant portion of whom supported PN over BN, while PH successfully mobilized supporters to vote.

Based on PRN Johor and Negeri Sembilan, these two factors remain relevant in Melaka: combining BN and PAS voters, and the erosion of support for PH. He believes BN and PAS Plus — referring to the Islam Party and PN coalition — could win up to 24 seats in PRN Melaka, but questions how seats would be distributed between the two blocs.

PAS leads in 13 seats, including Tanjung Bidara, a seat previously won by Umno's Deputy Chief Minister (Ab Rauf Yusoh). Wong wonders if Umno is now stronger than PRN15 (considering recent controversies involving Tabung Haji, Felda, Najib Razak's house, and the Nine Plot). He asks if Umno dares to stand alone (in Melaka), might PAS Plus become the largest bloc in the State Assembly, according to Sinar Harian.

Wong predicts PAS will demand a more equitable distribution of seats and more representatives in the State Council if their coalition wins PRN. Melaka voters will go to the polls on November 14.