Over $600 Million in Polymarket Election Trades Took Place After Races Ended
Contracts tied to elections in Ethiopia and Romania saw massive trading volumes after the outcomes were decided. “It’s obviously some form of volume manipulation,” one expert says.
Polymarket, an offshore election market, saw over $600 million in trading volume after elections ended, far exceeding typical activity. Most trades were on long-shot losing candidates. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's party won an overwhelming majority, yet traders poured $41 million into his chief of staff, Shimelis Abdisa, becoming the country's next leader.
Over $284 million of the trading volume came from repeated buying and selling between accounts, a pattern reminiscent of wash trading, which is prohibited in regulated markets and specifically banned on Polymarket. Former Polymarket trader Chris Park suspects the activity was designed to inflate trading volumes for potential benefits, such as a Polymarket cryptocurrency token or token allocation.
Polymarket's internal investigation confirmed these suspicions, flagging the accounts and halting their trading. Similar anomalies were observed in a 2024 Romanian election market, where trading activity continued long after the election was canceled and a new one was held. Both markets raised eyebrows due to the unusual trading patterns and the timing of the activity.
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