Maraga joins Ida Odinga, leaders in Bondo for Raila anniversary

A year after the death of Raila Odinga, the race to inherit his political power is shaping up to be a key issue as Kenya prepares for the 2027 general election. Several politicians, including President William Ruto, former President Uhuru Kenyatta, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, ODM leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Siaya Governor James Orengo, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and younger politicians, are all vying for a piece of the former Prime Minister's legacy.

Their claims reveal a deeper divide over how best to interpret and continue Raila's vision: as a political force that could work alongside the government to pursue reform, or as a tradition of opposition that challenges the government and demands accountability.

For the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), the contest is especially significant. Its past cooperation with Ruto's administration has allowed the party to maintain influence in the government, but it has also sparked debates about whether this collaboration furthers or undermines the principles that once defined the ODM. The question remains: can Raila's influence be passed on to another individual or party, or is it tied to a unique combination of personal history, political organization and relationships that cannot be replicated?

Ruto sees Raila's legacy as an opportunity to rationalize the political cooperation that grew between the two leaders before Odinga's passing. In March 2025, the two leaders signed a ten-point framework for cooperation that covers governance reforms, devolution, youth employment, public debt, corruption and the protection of civil liberties.

Ruto acknowledged that replacing Raila may not be possible, but argued that his legacy can be sustained through national development. The President's stance places importance on cooperation, development, and continuity between the government and the ODM. This position has gained political weight with the recent announcement that the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and ODM will jointly develop a manifesto for the 2027 election.

This partnership could provide Ruto with access to voters who previously supported Raila, while allowing the ODM to retain a role in national decision-making.

ODM leader Oburu Oginga and National Chairperson Gladys Wanga have emphasized the need to preserve the party's political influence as they prepare for the next election. During a memorial event in Kakamega on October 9, Wanga reaffirmed the party's commitment to free, fair, and transparent nominations, echoing Oginga's famous statement, "we cannot be without power."

However, this emphasis on retaining power raises the question of purpose: what will ODM use that influence to achieve, and what will it demand in return for its cooperation with the government?

Meanwhile, other politicians, such as Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, are positioning themselves as custodians of the opposition politics associated with Raila. Sifuna has argued that the late leader's influence will continue through the demands for a free, democratic, and accountable country that defined his political career. Sifuna's assertions suggest that the opposition's fate will depend on whether they can maintain an independent political identity, protect their reform agenda, defend their traditional constituencies, and give their members a meaningful role in determining alliances and candidates.

The central challenge for the ODM will be to determine whether it can sustain an independent political identity while cooperating with the government and fulfilling its reform agenda. The party's long-term strategy appears to be to enter the 2027 general election without a presidential candidate but to field one in 2032. However, addressing the immediate challenge of managing competing expectations among party members who have differing views on the relationship with Ruto will be crucial for the ODM's survival and success in the upcoming election.