JK Dobbins, RJ Harvey, and the Thursday Night Football fantasy trap

On Sunday, JK Dobbins out-touched teammate RJ Harvey 20-3 in fantasy football. However, one must consider whether Dobbins truly dominates the backfield or if Harvey is simply being rested for the upcoming Thursday Night Football game. Historical data suggests the latter; for instance, in the Sunday before Thanksgiving two years ago, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery each out-touched the other 24-11, only for their roles to flip four days later due to the team resting one player in advance of a short week.

Since 2012, running backs who played on Sunday and then Thursday have seen a 16.9% drop in fantasy points when they had 20+ touches on Sunday. Denver has given Dobbins 20+ touches for the first time in his past 10 games, with him averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and breaking tackles only around 70 times. His career-low of three touches on Sunday, following a solid 17-touch game the week prior, raises questions about the Broncos' strategic decisions.

Fantasy managers should be cautious in relying on Dobbins tonight, as Harvey may see a significant reduction in his usage. To stay updated with the latest fantasy insights, listen to a brief daily podcast lasting less than 10 minutes.