Gold gains over 1% despite hotter US inflation and Fed rate-hike bets

Gold prices experienced a jump of over 1% on Thursday, defying rising US inflation and expectations of additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The precious metal's price surged to around $4,159, marking a 1.31% increase for the day. Investors turned to safe-haven assets, such as gold and government bonds, amid a weakness in global equities and concerns over AI-related investments.

The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by 9 basis points to 5.06%, while the US Dollar Index declined towards 102.00 after peaking at 102.94 the previous day. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.3% month-over-month and 6.3% year-over-year in September, surpassing predictions of 0.5% and 5.3%, respectively. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.7% month-over-month and 5% year-over-year, also exceeding expectations.

Retail sales climbed 0.8% compared to the forecast of 0.3%, following an upwardly revised 1.3% increase in August. Initial jobless claims were slightly below expectations at 199K, up from 198K the previous week. Despite the higher energy prices adding to inflation concerns, traders anticipate another interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve before year-end, with a 90% probability according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

However, a hike at the October meeting remains less likely as recent Fed comments suggest policymakers are cautious about raising rates at consecutive meetings.