As bond yields rise, how to pick between a variable or fixed rate mortgage?

As bond yields rise, homeowners face a decision when choosing between a variable or fixed-rate mortgage. Historically, Canadians have favoured fixed-rate mortgages for their stability, but rising bond yields have made variable-rate mortgages more appealing in the short term. In Canada, more than one million households are renewing their mortgages this year, with variable and fixed-rate mortgages reacting differently to bond yields.

Currently, the five-year fixed-rate mortgage has a lowest available rate of 4.34 per cent, nearly a full percentage point higher than the lowest variable rate of 3.43 per cent. This wide gap between the two types of mortgages has made variable rates more attractive for those looking to reduce monthly costs. According to Jamie David, vice president of mortgages at RateHub, inquiries for variable-rate mortgages have increased to 36 per cent of all inquiries between January and September, up from 10 per cent in the same period last year.

However, fixed-rate mortgages remain popular, especially for those with tight budgets or those renewing their mortgages. Experts advise potential borrowers to consider their risk tolerance and financial goals, as variable rates can offer lower costs right now but come with the risk of higher payments if interest rates rise during the mortgage term. Most lenders allow converting a variable mortgage to a fixed one without a prepayment penalty, although the new fixed rate may be higher than the current variable rate.

Shorter-term fixed mortgages, such as two-year or three-year fixed options, offer a compromise for borrowers seeking monthly payment certainty without committing to a long-term fixed rate. However, if rates are expected to drop within the next few years, this may not be the best choice, as it could result in paying more when the mortgage term ends.

Experts expect continued volatility in the bond market and fixed-rate mortgage rates in the coming days due to potential rate hikes by the Bank of Canada or elevated inflation due to high energy prices. Canadians should stay informed about economic conditions and adjust their decisions accordingly.