Indian rupee to build on rally after RBI chief reinforces currency support

The Indian rupee is anticipated to continue its upward trend on Wednesday following the central bank's reaffirmed support measures, according to traders. The currency opened at 95.28 to the dollar on Tuesday, and is now projected to open between 95.04 and 95.12. The rupee has already risen by 1.5% over the past two days after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) introduced a series of steps to tackle the dollar demand-supply imbalance that had been causing sustained pressure on the rupee.

In an interview on Tuesday, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra defended the recent forex curbs as an effort to discourage speculative betting. He stated that the measures were aimed at preserving access to currency hedges for businesses with genuine exposure, while also indicating that the central bank is prepared to take additional steps to ensure an orderly rupee movement.

Malhotra added that while monetary policy is not traditionally used to address financial stability concerns, the two are not entirely separate. "The mandate of price stability cannot be achieved without financial stability, as a stable financial system is essential for the effective transmission of monetary policy," he said.

Bankers have interpreted Malhotra's comments as hawkish, with some suggesting that the case for a December rate hike is reinforced, and others mentioning a potential 50 basis point increase. A trader at a bank commented that the RBI is doing everything it can to break the rupee's prolonged pressure, but acknowledged that underlying fundamentals remain unfavorable.

These concerns include rising oil prices and weak capital flows, with oil prices continuing to increase due to supply concerns and fighting between Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis and Saudi Arabia.