GRS must navigate seat-sharing to expand GE16 tally

The Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition is aiming to secure more parliamentary seats in the upcoming general election, with estimates suggesting they could win over 15 seats. However, achieving this goal may require strategic alliances and retaining the seats they already hold. According to GRS secretary-general Armizan Mohd Ali, a simulation based on the 2025 Sabah state election results indicates the coalition could exceed their previous 15-seat tally.

GRS has historically performed well in Sabah, winning six out of 25 parliamentary seats during the 15th general election, including Papar, Sipitang, Ranau, Keningau, Batu Sapi, and Tawau. Political analyst Awang Azman Pawi from Universiti Malaya expressed optimism about the coalition's prospects after their strong showing in the recent state polls, which demonstrated broad support across various regions, including rural and interior areas.

Awang Azman identified Kudat, Kota Belud, Beaufort, Kimanis, Beluran, and Kota Marudu as key battlegrounds for GRS expansion. These constituencies are not currently held by the coalition but have shown potential, particularly Kudat, where GRS performed well in the state election. The other constituencies could become more competitive with the entry of Upko (United Pasokmomogun Kadazandusun Murut Organisation) into the GRS coalition, as Upko has strong support among Kadazandusun-Murut voters and in mixed constituencies.

Kudat, currently held by independent assemblyman Verdon Bahanda, who has reportedly considered joining Barisan Nasional, could become more attractive for GRS following Upko's involvement. Kota Belud, a Warisan seat, might also become more competitive with the coalition's support from Upko in Tempasuk and Pintasam. Beaufort, held by BN, and Beluran, currently represented by BN, are also potential targets for GRS, having won both state seats in the 2025 state election.

In Kota Marudu, GRS holds Matunggong and Tandek, while Bandau is represented by an independent assemblyman. In Kimanis, held by BN, GRS controls Membakut, while Warisan holds Bongawan. The tougher challenges for GRS include Kinabatangan and Libaran, both strongholds of BN, which could be considered secondary targets if GRS can secure strong candidates and favorable conditions.

UGM's Bilcher Bala cautioned that GRS's immediate priority should be defending their existing parliamentary seats, particularly Ranau, Sipitang, Batu Sapi, and Tawau, which may not be safe given the differences between state and parliamentary voting patterns. Bilcher suggested that strategic cooperation with both Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) could increase the number of seats GRS can win, but this could also limit their ability to contest certain seats.

A target of 10-12 seats under GRS's leadership seems more achievable if they engage in seat-sharing arrangements with BN and PH. However, reaching 15 seats would require either contesting and winning additional seats from BN and PH or negotiating for their allies to contest under a common political umbrella.