Die Amerikaner zücken weiter ihre Kreditkarten – und bescheren den Banken damit hohe Gewinne und Rekordboni

American consumers face high levels of optimism despite financial stresses. Rising fuel prices, increasing interest rates, and the Iran war contribute to many Americans' mood, but not to the American banks. The big banks presented exceptional quarterly figures on Tuesday. Financial institutions benefit from the AI boom fueling the stock market and companies raising fresh funds for data centers and AI tools.

Increasing stock prices also make affluent Americans feel wealthier and continue using credit cards. New bank data shows that Americans are doing better financially than the overall pessimism suggests. Unemployment remains low, so Americans keep spending money. The number of credit card customers failing to make timely payments slightly decreased at industry leader JP Morgan in the third quarter.

JP Morgan CEO Jeremy Barnum confirmed to analysts on Tuesday that despite high interest rates set by the central bank, consumer activity is still very good. However, high interest rates could eventually cool economic activity. JP Morgan missed high expectations from Wall Street primarily because the business with fixed-income securities performed poorly.

Competitors Wells Fargo and Citigroup largely met expectations, while Goldman Sachs benefited from strong stock trading and business with corporate mergers. As the first half of the year was excellent, New York bankers can hope for higher bonuses in the spring. In the past week, New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli estimated that financial institutions would record over $90 billion in profit this year, leading to record bonuses for bankers.

By 2026, the bonus pool may break the $50 billion barrier in inflation-adjusted terms, coming close to the 2006 record before the major financial crisis hit Wall Street. For Democratic governments in New York City and State, these are excellent news, as tax revenues are expected to be correspondingly high. Even if individual financial firms have flirted with moving their headquarters to Miami since the left-leaning city administration of Zohran Mamdani took office, New York remains the undisputed number one financial hub globally.

The city's treasury benefits directly from this. A special payday awaits Goldman Sachs employees at the end of October, as the bank outperformed most competitors on the stock market over the past five years, resulting in a combined special bonus of over $500 million for these executives, with CEO David Solomon receiving a significant portion.

Even high-profile CEO John Waldron will get a large special compensation. Even though things are going well currently, financial institutions must prepare for larger changes in their business models. A key topic remains the rapid progress of AI agents. While banks themselves earn a lot of money from AI, organizing computing centers for leading tech companies or managing the wealth of the newly rich Silicon Valley entrepreneurs, the technology also threatens a part of their business model.

Concerns arose on Wall Street in September when Meta, the conglomerate behind Instagram and Facebook, introduced its new assistant, Muse. The worry was that asset managers and banks could lose part of their business as many investors would use their AI agents as financial advisors and brokers. JP Morgan and Bank of America's stock prices suffered temporarily.

Jeremy Barnum now told analysts that while the competition pressure from these AI agents is real, there has been a lot of competition in the asset management business for a long time, including fintech companies. They also want to protect customers from AI agents running amok. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, stated that when customers give an agent the authority to invest their money, they themselves bear the responsibility.

"If the customers use them, they must understand the risks." In short, the American financial landscape is buzzing with activity. Europeans try to catch up after the financial crisis, but they eventually need to abandon national egoism. Many Americans have financial worries. Persistently high fuel prices affect people with smaller incomes the most. With the election approaching, voter frustration will be expressed.