China's September exports blow past forecasts, imports accelerate

In September, China's trade surplus expanded beyond expectations as exports surged by 36.3%, significantly outpacing the 25.5% growth anticipated and marking the fastest increase since February. Imports also rose robustly by 31%, exceeding forecasts of a 24.5% increase. Customs data revealed that global demand for semiconductors and green-tech products has supported China's factories, alleviating pressure on policymakers to boost economic growth.

Despite potential external uncertainties, including geopolitical conflicts, Wang Jun, a vice-customs minister, stated that there is foundation and support for continued export and import growth in the fourth quarter. Analysts anticipate that trade will remain robust, driven by technology products. China's trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion in November 2025 and reached a record $1.189 trillion for the entire year, with the surplus reaching $938.11 billion in the first nine months of 2026, putting the nation on track to surpass the $1 trillion mark sooner.

September's trade surplus alone widened to $133.53 billion, driven by record surpluses of $34.01 billion with the United States and $34.8 billion with the European Union. A recent EU deal to limit Chinese hybrid vehicle exports may impact China's booming auto trade, but exporters may expedite shipments to avoid the deadline in December.

China's president, Xi Jinping, secured an extension to the tariff truce and a reduction in tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods from each side during a summit with US President Donald Trump in September. With global AI infrastructure construction showing no signs of slowing, analysts expect demand for Chinese-made technology products, including semiconductors, to stay strong.

September saw factory-gate prices rise at their fastest rate in over four years, while consumer inflation edged up but remained below expectations. The Canton Fair is set to begin on October 15, providing Chinese manufacturers with an opportunity to present their products to international buyers. September crude oil imports fell 21.5% year-on-year in volume terms, and soybean imports declined by 7.7% compared to the same month in 2025.

The export strength indicates that policymakers could still rely on moderate policy support to achieve China's 4.5% to 5% annual gross domestic product growth target. China's central bank recently defended its exchange-rate policy, dismissing criticisms that it pursues competitive depreciation and rejects accusations of artificially weakening the yuan to gain a trade advantage.