Asia’s coal appetite endures as winter looms and supply tightens; Iran war boosts outlook
Asia's coal demand remains strong despite winter approaching and supply tightening, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. Asian thermal coal prices have reached a two-year high as power plants stockpile fuel for the colder months, and the market is being pressured by rising demand and supply disruptions. Despite the dirtiest fossil fuel's target for output and usage cuts, the need for energy security is driving demand, which the IEA recently forecasted to rise to record levels in 2026.
The Iran war has contributed to the outlook for thermal coal demand as oil and gas prices have skyrocketed and the power sector's reliance on coal has increased. 2026's Middle East energy crisis has made "the long-term outlook for thermal coal demand more resilient", Morgan Stanley raised its long-term outlook for Newcastle export prices by 4% to US$125 a tonne.
Rising coal prices are forcing miners to adjust their prices, and coal is also replacing oil in industries like chemicals that typically use crude as a feedstock. However, output has been constrained in key suppliers, with China's top mining region experiencing a significant decline after a deadly accident in May resulted in safety inspections. Indonesia, the biggest exporter, is dealing with government production quotas and drought affecting barge traffic.
China, which mines and burns half the world's coal, saw thermal prices reach a three-year high due to domestic output falling more than 3% in 2026. While renewable energy adoption is growing in China, the winter season is still expected to keep prices increasing. In India, coal-fired power stations have exhausted their inventories due to a hot summer, and unscheduled power cuts have started, prompting coal buyers to seek foreign cargoes.
Indonesia, the top supplier, has struggled to profit, with exports falling to a five-year low in September. The outlook for coal prices depends on the weather, with some predicting a milder winter in much of Asia due to the supercharged El Niño weather pattern.
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