UK growth upgraded but energy prices and rates to bite in 2027

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded the UK's economic growth forecast, but warns that higher energy prices and interest rates will affect growth in 2027. The UK's economy is expected to expand by 1.3% in 2026, up from the previous 1% estimate, but will slow to 1.2% in 2027. Global economies have shown resilience to the energy price shock caused by the US-Iran war, though the economic fallout from the conflict remains uncertain.

Chancellor John Healey plans to provide some relief for households in the upcoming Budget, while the IMF projects the UK will have the lowest borrowing rate among the G7 countries in the next five years. The UK is expected to have the second-fastest growing economy in the G7 after Germany. Despite acknowledging the impact of conflicts on people globally, Healey believes Britain's economy is resilient.

Economists warn that Healey faces the challenge of finding £35 billion to avoid public spending cuts while fulfilling defense commitments in his first Budget. The Resolution Foundation calls for repairs to the public finances, emphasizing the need for targeted support for those struggling with heating costs. The Conservative shadow chancellor, Andrew Griffith, warns that any tax rises in the Budget would lead to slower growth and increased hardship for working people.

Burnham's new government aims to create good growth in every postcode, but his strategy has been criticized within the party. The IMF expects inflation to average 3.3% this year and remain above the Bank of England's 2% target in 2027, prompting potential interest rate hikes. The IMF and finance ministers will discuss the economic impact of conflicts in the Middle East and Europe at the IMF's annual meeting in Bangkok, Thailand.