Trump’s Russian energy strategy could backfire

U.S. President Donald Trump's recent energy policy strategy toward Russia has the potential to backfire, repeating mistakes from his predecessor's administration. On Friday, Trump waived sanctions on Russian diesel exports until spring and permitted the release of 300,000 metric tons of diesel into the global market. However, this move was quickly condemned by a bipartisan group of senators who argued that the volume was too small to make a difference and extended a "financial lifeline" to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Former State Department energy diplomat Geoff Pyatt noted that the diesel relaxation is a "sweetheart deal" that could encourage Putin to continue fighting in hopes of receiving further support.

The "ceasefire" announced by Trump also seems to have been violated almost immediately by Russia. A Ukrainian official stated that Kyiv is temporarily holding off on further long-range drone strikes against Russian refineries while assessing Moscow's behavior and potentially clarifying details of Trump's proposal with US officials.

Axios reported that the deal may only apply to refineries, which would not be beneficial for Ukraine as it has only one barely-functional refinery. Ukraine is more concerned about its power sector, which a leaked Russian military planning document indicates remains directly in Moscow's sights.

Dangling a limited ceasefire deal that Ukraine cannot accept sends a message to the Kremlin similar to the diesel deal, implying that Ukrainians are the problem in the war and that US resolve in supporting Ukraine is weak. The past few years have shown that accommodating Putin pushes him away from the negotiating table. Trump and his energy officials have criticized Biden for authorizing a record release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in 2022, as well as relaxing sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in 2021, both actions they argued contributed to emboldening Putin and escalating the war in Ukraine.

With only three weeks until the midterms, Trump's concerns about diesel prices and the slow recovery of exports from the Persian Gulf could be counterproductive. A recent poll found that even if Trump achieved a political feat like ending the Iran war or reducing gasoline prices by $1 ahead of the election, a majority of voters would not be more likely to support the Republican party.