Truist cuts Goosehead Insurance stock price target on rate concerns

Truist Securities has reduced its price target for Goosehead Insurance Inc. to $48 from $58 while retaining a Hold rating. The firm lowered its 2026 earnings per share estimate to $2.00 from $2.15 and its 2027 forecast to $2.45 from $2.55. This adjustment aligns with broader market sentiment, as 8 analysts have revised their earnings downwards for the upcoming period.

The current stock price of $44.77 trades near Truist's new target, which is based on a 20 times earnings multiple of the firm's 2027 earnings per share estimate. Truist attributes the lower estimates to rising mortgage interest rates, which are expected to restrain new sales productivity. The company now projects core revenue growth of 13% to 14% in the second half, down from the prior outlook of 15% to 16%.

Truist has also increased its expense load estimate to reflect a projected high-teens-to-low-twenty percent uptick, in line with management guidance. Despite the revised estimates, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently undervalued. Goosehead Insurance has garnered attention from several analysts recently. Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded the stock to Overweight with a $76.00 price target, citing improved profitability and core business performance.

Texas Capital Securities also upgraded to a Buy with a $66.00 target, noting the impact of AI disruption concerns on the stock. Conversely, Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to Neutral with a $48.00 target, citing uncertainties around revenue growth guidance. Lastly, Citizens lowered its price target to $80.00 from $100.00, maintaining a Market Outperform rating, anticipating light domestic catastrophe losses in the upcoming third quarter.