The Singularity Has a Distribution: Exact Timing Laws and Detection Limits for a Stochastic Intelligence Explosion
Automating AI research creates a positive feedback loop between software capability and research effort. We study a stochastic realisation of this loop in which independent, positive, multiplicative improvements arrive at a rate proportional to a power of current capability. Within this model, randomness leaves the deterministic explosion threshold unchanged but replaces the blow-up date by an…
We haven't written up this one. arXiv cs.AI has the full story — the link below goes straight to it.
