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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Ghana’s economic growth forecast for 2026 upwards to 5.7%, a significant increase from its previous estimate of 4.6%. This prediction, found in the IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook, is 1.1 percentage points higher than the April estimate and surpasses the government’s growth objective of 4.8% for the year.

The IMF’s outlook was unveiled during its Annual Meetings with the World Bank in Bangkok, Thailand, on October 13. However, the Fund anticipates Ghana’s growth rate to ease to 5.2% in 2027, suggesting that the present rate of expansion may not persist.

In tandem with the enhanced growth forecast, the IMF has reduced its projection for Ghana’s year-end inflation to 4.8%, a drop from the initially estimated 7.9%. This projection is below the Bank of Ghana's medium-term inflation target of 8%, yet the central bank permits a two-percentage point margin either side of the target.

September 2026 witnessed inflation falling to 5.2%, indicating that the rate of price increases could potentially decelerate further before the end of the year. This would be Ghana’s second consecutive year of single-digit inflation at year-end, following a similar scenario in 2025.

The improved economic outlook is credited to fiscal consolidation efforts, spending aimed at stimulating economic activity, and robust export earnings, notably from gold. The surge in gold exports has bolstered Ghana’s trade balance and bolstered its external position.

Nevertheless, the IMF has cautioned that Ghana's reliance on commodity exports renders the economy susceptible to swings in global commodity prices. It has underscored the importance of diversifying exports to mitigate exposure to external shocks and fortify the groundwork for sustained long-term growth.

Ghana's GDP expanded by 6.0% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, raising the growth rate for the first half of the year to 6.2%. Despite the positive domestic outlook, the IMF notes that global economic conditions remain unpredictable. The Fund predicts global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026, ascending to 3.4% in 2027. It also expects global headline inflation to peak at 4.7% this year, before falling to 4.1% in 2027.

The IMF cautions that geopolitical conflicts, renewed trade tensions, high public debt, and uncertainty about investment in artificial intelligence could impede global economic activity. For Ghana, sustaining the recovery depends on maintaining fiscal discipline, expanding the country’s export base, and bolstering domestic economic activity amidst these external risks.