Soybean Futures Hit 6-Week Low

Soybean futures prices dropped to a six-week low, trading below $12.8 per bushel. This decline was driven by expectations of a record-large United States crop and active harvesting activities. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised its 2026 soybean production forecast upward to 4.562 billion bushels, from the previous estimate of 4.535 billion bushels in September.

This upward revision surpassed market expectations of 4.534 billion bushels. Additionally, the USDA increased its average yield projection for soybeans to 53.1 bushels per acre, up from 52.8 bushels per acre.

The favorable weather conditions in the Midwest, characterized by mostly dry weather, have enabled farmers to expedite the harvesting process. The USDA's weekly crop progress report is scheduled to be released on Tuesday. Concurrently, soybean planting in Brazil is proceeding at an unprecedented rate, aided by favorable rainfall conditions facilitating fieldwork.

Traders are now closely monitoring the potential impact of Chinese demand on soybean futures prices. Recent discussions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have sparked interest, although existing punitive Chinese tariffs continue to deter private buyers from entering the market. Furthermore, China has reduced its 2026/27 soybean production forecast to 20.36 million tonnes, while maintaining its import outlook at 95.5 million tonnes. This forecast is significantly lower than the USDA's projected 115 million-tonne import demand.