Russia’s Rassvet Satellites Could Give Drones Space-Based Control, Former HUR Officials Warns

Former Ukrainian intelligence official Major General Ilya Pavlenko has warned that Russia's expanding Rassvet satellite network could enable its forces to control long-range drones with real-time, space-based guidance over Ukraine. Speaking to Interfax-Ukraine, Pavlenko cautioned against underestimating the project due to issues with its initial satellites, emphasizing the importance of the system's reliability in supporting regular military communications.

He also noted that Rassvet could serve as a tool for hybrid warfare against NATO countries and explained that Russia is moving its jet drone factories underground, limiting Ukraine's ability to intercept or destroy drones before deployment. With compact Rassvet terminals, a drone launched from a civilian vessel in the English Channel or a rented trailer in Europe could strike targets in cities like London or Paris without interference.

The satellites, built by the Russian company Bureau 1440, operate in low orbit and offer significantly shorter signal travel times, potentially improving performance. However, continuous coverage requires hundreds of satellites, and higher orbit could balance faster speed with larger coverage. Russia plans to launch 292 satellites in 2027 and 924 by 2035.

The biggest concern for Ukraine is the potential for drones to gain communication channels independent of ground networks, better coordination between dispersed units, and smaller terminals that could fit on various weapons. While a satellite link alone cannot improve navigation or protect drones from electronic warfare or air defenses, effective countermeasures against Rassvet require detailed knowledge of its frequencies, protocols, and terminal design, which is not publicly available.