Russian men are fleeing before the army can grab them

In recent weeks, thousands of Russian men have fled their country, fearing the "special electoral procedure" could lead to a new wave of military mobilisation. Since Vladimir Putin declared partial mobilisation in September 2022, 400,000 men have already left Russia. This time, however, people are leaving even without any official notice, although in smaller numbers.

On August 18th, 20,000 people crossed the land border between Russia and Georgia, nearly triple the usual daily figure. Russian customs officials reported similar numbers in preceding days as well. The number of people seeking help from volunteer organisations has also increased, with Idite Lesom (Get Lost) receiving twice as many requests this autumn compared to spring.

Moreover, inquiries to Kovcheg (Arc) have surged eight-fold since July. Rumors of a new mobilisation have been circulating for months, with Ukrainian officials predicting a call-up of at least 100,000 men and French President Emmanuel Macron estimating 300,000. The Kremlin, however, denies these claims, dismissing the rumors as an "information attack on Russia."

Despite official denials, Russians believe that the more authorities deny a plan, the more likely it is to be enacted. In 2022, the Kremlin denied mobilisation just a week before it was announced. Nevertheless, the administrative system has been improved since then, now including electronic summonses and communication between recruiters and border officers.

To avoid potential unrest, the next wave of mobilisation is likely to be covert. Debtors, unemployed individuals, and failing students may be coerced into enlisting. Some even believe that such coercion has already begun. A military lawyer claims that DNA samples are being collected from inmates in a prison in Ryazan to identify their corpses if they fall in battle.

The Kremlin is decentralising the recruitment process, sending quotas to regional governors and large firm bosses, who will be responsible for ensuring compliance. In wealthier regions, such as Sverdlovsk, the sign-up bonus is 3.1 million roubles ($37,000), nearly four times higher than in poorer areas like Syktyvkar. Recruits often travel from poorer regions to sign up in wealthier ones.

Military bloggers and nationalists are also eager for mobilisation, with Rusich, an ultra-nationalist group, calling for half a million men to be mobilised to achieve Putin's war objectives. While Western analysts have previously thought that a new wave of mobilisation would be risky and provoke protests, Russia's military bloggers and nationalists appear to be more convinced.

To be effective, Russia's new soldiers would need to be younger, fitter, and better-educated, similar to the North Korean troops who have fought alongside Russia. These troops have proven to be more tenacious and capable than Russian infantry, especially in urban combat where drones are less effective. However, Russia's army primarily recruits low-skilled men with few prospects and offers low salaries, large bonuses, and death benefits.

If Russia were to train and equip its new recruits to North Korean standards, the situation on the front could change significantly.