Reaching net zero sooner could limit long-lasting El Niño-like shift in the Pacific
Reaching net zero sooner would limit long-lasting changes to El Niño and the tropical Pacific, new climate modeling suggests, although heat stored deep in the ocean means changes to the tropical Pacific could persist for centuries.
An intense El Niño is projected to be the most severe on record, with effects persisting until 2027, potentially intensifying Australia's risk of bushfires and altering global weather patterns. Research indicates that extreme El Niño years may become more frequent as the world warms due to greenhouse gas emissions. In this context, reaching net zero carbon emissions sooner could mitigate the occurrence of extreme El Niño events.
The Pacific Ocean, spanning roughly a third of the globe, exhibits a normal temperature gradient from west to east, which influences trade winds and rainfall patterns. During an El Niño, this gradient diminishes, causing easterly trade winds to weaken and shifting rainfall eastwards, away from Australia. Climate models suggest that as the eastern Pacific warms faster than the western region under continued warming, this temperature difference will shrink. However, there is currently no empirical evidence of this phenomenon.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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- Extreme El Niños are coming. Reaching net zero sooner means facing fewer of them theconversation.com
