Pakistan’s growth during FY27 projected at 3.5pc, inflation at 9.9pc: IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Pakistan's economic growth at 3.5 percent for the current fiscal year, while inflation is expected to remain close to double digits for another year, at 9.9 percent. The IMF's World Economic Outlook estimates Pakistan's current account deficit to widen to 1 percent of GDP from a surplus of 0.5 percent in FY2025.

Despite the rising unemployment rate from 6.9 percent last year to 6.5 percent this year, the lending agency noted that global economic activity has proven resilient, despite multiple challenges. The global growth rebounded to 3.4 percent, with the IMF projecting it to further slow to 3.1 percent in 2026 before rebounding to 3.4 percent in 2027.

Global headline inflation is expected to rise notably to 4.7 percent in 2026 before easing to 4.1 percent in 2027. The IMF attributes global economic resilience to the technology upturn, buffers that mitigated disruptions from geopolitical events, and adaptations by households, firms, financial markets, and governments. However, the IMF cautioned that countries like Pakistan, which import energy and have limited ties to the technology value chain, face a more challenging outlook.