Pakistan to Pay Double for LNG This Winter

Pakistan anticipates a significant increase in its liquefied natural gas (LNG) import bill for the winter months of November 2026 to February 2027, reaching a projected total of $1.29 billion. This surge in costs is attributed to heightened demand during the colder months and interruptions in Qatari gas supplies, compelling the nation to purchase more expensive LNG from the spot market.

The anticipated monthly average for this period stands at $322.5 million, with a total of 22 LNG deliveries planned, including 12 sourced from Qatar under long-term contracts and 10 acquired through spot market purchases. The spot purchases are expected to amount to $863 million, each cargo costing around $86.3 million, which is nearly double the price of LNG procured under long-term agreements.

Long-term contracts are projected to cover $429.83 million of the estimated winter import bill, encompassing 11 cargoes from Qatar valued at $351.41 million and one cargo from Eni for $78.42 million in January. The highest import bill is expected in January 2027, with eight cargoes driving monthly costs to $437.32 million. December's LNG import bill is forecasted at $369 million, reflecting the increased expense of spot market acquisitions.

The government's procurement strategy was deliberated upon during a recent meeting of the energy task force. It was determined that winter demand would necessitate supplementary LNG supplies between November and February, with public sector entities intending to fulfill about half of the requirement through existing long-term contracts.

The government has been in dialogue with PSO and QatarEnergy, two entities that have signed agreements under government-to-government arrangements. PSO holds a 15-year contract, valid from 2016 to 2031, while QatarEnergy's contract spans 10 years, from 2021 to 2031. Both pacts involve PSO receiving 6.75 million tonnes of LNG annually, equivalent to 108 cargoes.

However, due to reduced domestic demand, PSO and QatarEnergy previously agreed to reroute 24 cargoes scheduled for 2026 to alternative markets. The second contract, inked during the tenure of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government, faced criticism as Pakistan did not necessitate additional LNG at that time, resulting in an oversupply.

Recently, PSO and Qatar have submitted notices to review their LNG contracts, with PSO seeking federal government approval to reassess its agreement with QatarEnergy. Both contracts are set to terminate in 2031. The projected import bill remains contingent upon actual supply availability, contract quantities, prevailing long-term prices, and spot market rates.