OPINIÃO. O sussurro dos economistas sobre a AI
O lançamento da primeira versão do ChatGPT se deu em novembro de 2022, e a AI agêntica tomou corpo em 2024-2025. Em muito pouco tempo a inteligência artificial invadiu os mercados, carreiras, processos de produção e estratégias empresariais – e estamos só no começo. É difícil saber em que mundo estaremos vivendo já ao final desta década, que dirá em 20 ou 30 anos.
In November 2022, the inaugural version of ChatGPT was released, marking the beginning of the pervasive presence of artificial intelligence in various aspects of life. Within a short span, AI has infiltrated markets, careers, production processes, and business strategies, and it is only the onset. The future remains uncertain, as we enter a new decade that may reconfigure itself in 20 or 30 years.
A documentary titled "The AI Doc" on Netflix interviewed over 40 individuals, including the CEOs of Open AI (Sam Altman) and Anthropic (Dario Amodei). Their perspectives on the future range from a utopia of abundant free time and resources to dystopian scenarios, including threats to the human species. Notably, economists were notably absent from this discussion.
Similarly, during recent debates on AI model regulation in the USA, the conversation was dominated by figures from Silicon Valley and government leaders, with economists notably absent. Despite recent economic advancements and data availability, the profession has been comparatively silent in the face of a potentially unique revolution in capitalism, with far-reaching impacts on work, private property, inequality, wages, industrial organization, governments, and more.
While there is economic research on the subject, figures like Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu have explored aspects of employment substitution and human capability enhancement. Researcher Erik Brynjolfsson from Stanford has also provided relevant contributions. In a recent study with Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen, the authors found no evidence of widespread job destruction, but rather an increase in employment among 22 to 25-year-old workers in highly exposed professions.
The National Bureau of Economic Research has been researching this area for nearly a decade and recently published a volume titled "The Economics of Transformative AI." However, economists seem to be a whisper in the debate, given the significant traditional economic themes that the AI revolution will influence, such as allocating productivity gains, balancing efficiency and market power, incentives for AI that complements work, and adapting the tax system to the new reality.
Written by urgent.news from Brazil Journal's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
