Oil prices fall as Russia diesel export claims offset Gulf supply concerns

Oil prices experienced a decline on Tuesday as Russia announced that diesel exports could surpass those stipulated in a supply agreement with the U.S. This information contradicted concerns about potential disruptions to Gulf oil supplies. By 04:32 ET (08:32 GMT), benchmark Brent crude futures had decreased by 1.5% to $105.09 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 1.7% to $92.11 a barrel.

The drop in oil prices occurred after Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak declared on Monday that Russia would be able to increase diesel exports beyond the levels initially agreed upon in a supply deal with U.S. President Donald Trump. Initially, Trump had stated that Russia had agreed to supply diesel globally, and his administration temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian fuel.

Furthermore, Trump had proposed an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, although skepticism persisted, particularly given reports that Russia had targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure even after the statement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy reportedly told Axios that the ceasefire was news to him but expressed willingness to accept a ceasefire from Russia if it reciprocated.

However, analysts at ING pointed out that the market's primary concern was still ongoing developments in the Middle East, specifically the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the lingering risks to oil flows in the Persian Gulf. Supply disruptions in the region remained a point of concern following Iran-backed Houthis' attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia over the weekend.

There were fears that oil supplies from Saudi Arabia, a major crude producer, could be affected by the conflict. A Saudi-led government coalition in Yemen had launched a new offensive earlier in the month with the aim of recapturing Houthi-controlled territory, including areas that control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint for Saudi oil flows.

Additionally, a protracted stalemate between the U.S. and Iran had left the status of the Strait of Hormuz uncertain. While shipping data indicated a brief improvement in tanker traffic in September, renewed attacks on vessels in the strait posed a threat to oil flows once again.