NZ First's culture war push hits wall

Winston Peters, the veteran leader of New Zealand First, has adopted a culture-war approach that has fueled the rise of populist parties in countries like Britain, Australia, and the United States. However, so far, the strategy has not yielded significant results for his party. Despite Peters' decades-old New Zealand First remaining a smaller force, he believes that frustration over immigration, cost-of-living pressures, and debates on gender, abortion, and national identity can help his party secure a stronger position in the upcoming election on November 7.

Analysts, though, argue that the same rhetoric resonating in other English-speaking nations might not be as appealing to New Zealand's more secular and less polarized electorate. With tight polling figures, New Zealand First and the right-wing ACT party are crucial for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's center-right bloc to form the government.

Peters, who has ruled out a coalition with the center-left Labour Party, has also ruled out a deal with the centrist Opportunity Party. New Zealand First's 2026 campaign is the most right-wing in its 33-year history, pushing for immigration curbs, defining gender, and leaving the Paris climate accord. However, recent surveys suggest that support for the party has waned, putting it around 10 per cent, compared to Pauline Hanson's One Nation at 30 per cent in Australia and Reform UK at 23.4 per cent in Britain.

New Zealand's proportional representation voting system might provide a release valve for such views, making it less likely for them to infiltrate major parties as seen in the US.