Micron’s stock extends declines as China competition heats up

Analyst Jordan Klein of Mizuho TMT has listed seven reasons why China's CXMT claims about a new DDR5 RDIMM with a smaller cell design do not pose a threat to Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix, or Samsung Electronics. Klein emphasizes that the announcement does not change investors' near-term stance on those memory suppliers. The CXMT roadmap focuses on a DDR5 RDIMM using a 4F-squared cell architecture with a vertical surrounding gate transistor, planned for launch by the end of 2026.

Klein argues that the timeline for CXMT's product introduction and Samsung's mass-production target for comparable 4F-squared DRAM technology cannot be directly compared, as launch does not equate to manufacturing maturity, yields, or cost competitiveness. Moreover, CXMT has not demonstrated mass-production success, verified yields, or performance for its 4F² products, making it premature to assume an imminent supply glut.

Klein also cautions against assuming that a smaller cell size automatically leads to lower chip costs, highlighting the complexity, yields, and integration factors that influence cost, which CXMT has yet to prove competitive in. Notably, CXMT's ambitions are not unique to China, as Samsung and SK Hynix are also pursuing similar DDR5 4F-squared designs, indicating an industry-wide transition.

Klein points out that the product in question is conventional server DRAM, not High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which limits CXMT's near-term relevance to AI compute buildouts that have driven memory supplier valuations. While CXMT's 4F-squared ambitions are not exclusive to China, they are part of a broader industry-wide shift in DRAM technology.