Kryptowährung: Einmalzahlung statt Sparplan – Ist die Strategie beim Bitcoin wirklich besser?

For investors considering Bitcoin investment, the choice between purchasing in larger lump sums or through a monthly savings plan is crucial. Historically, larger lump sum investments have proven to be more beneficial. However, there are two limitations to this approach. Firstly, lump sum investments have historically performed better due to the dynamic price movements seen in the past.

Bitcoin's price surged from just 30 cents to over $80,000 since 2011, despite frequent sharp declines, which eventually recovered. The best five-year periods for Bitcoin investment all occurred between 2011 and 2021. Analyst Dominic Weibel from Bitcoin Suisse states that for investors who already own capital and wish to invest long-term, historical analysis frequently supports lump sum investments, as the capital is in the market earlier and participates in all price increases.

However, Bitcoin's price dynamics have decreased recently, with both upward and downward phases less pronounced than in the first decade of Bitcoin. This is evident in the annualized 30-day volatility, which has decreased from a peak of over 100% in the 2010s to between 20 and 50% in recent years. Consequently, the advantage of lump sum investments compared to a savings plan is not as clear-cut.

This is supported by a Handelsblatt calculation for the past five years, starting from July 2021 when the first Bitcoin-tracking ETF was launched in the US. Two approaches were compared: investing 100 euros monthly using a savings plan and buying 1,200 euros worth of CoinShares Physical Bitcoin at the first trading day of the period, then holding for twelve months without touching it.

The calculation covered 53 twelve-month periods over five years, comparing the returns. Lump sum investment still outperformed the savings plan in 58% of cases, with a slight increase of around $192 per month. This highlights the second limitation of lump sum investments: their success increasingly depends on market timing. For example, lump sum investments made from mid-2021 to mid-2022 often resulted in a worse outcome compared to a savings plan.

The same applies to lump sum investments made from mid-2025 onwards. Bitcoin has moved in four-year cycles since its creation. New Bitcoin is rewarded to mining companies that secure the Bitcoin network and validate transactions. This rewards them with newly created Bitcoin. Once every four years, the reward for transaction confirmation is halved, a mechanism known as halving.

This mechanism started a four-year cycle, which can be divided into four phases. The price began to rise before the halving, then declined as the supply of newly created Bitcoin halved. A rally followed, attracting new investors and pushing prices higher. Twelve to eighteen months after the halving, Bitcoin reached new highs, a pattern that has held true for all previous halvings, with the last record reached in October 2025.

However, following each record high, a correction phase typically occurs, lasting twelve to fourteen months. This cycle is debated, as the halving's effect on Bitcoin's supply diminishes relative to existing stock and institutional capital flows.