Konjunktur: IWF blickt deutlich optimistischer auf deutsche Wirtschaft

The International Monetary Fund (IWF) is expressing a significantly more optimistic outlook for the German economy this year. In 2026, the growth rate is now projected at 1.3 percent, nearly double the initial estimate of 0.7 percent in July. For the next year, economists anticipate a growth of 1.1 percent, 0.1 percentage points higher than previously expected.

This optimism is attributed to the surprising resilience of the German economy. According to the German Ministry of Economy, this surge is driven by one-third from state investments in infrastructure and defense, and a third from exports. German exports have benefited temporarily from global shortages, as countries stockpiled energy-intensive goods produced domestically, such as steel, fertilizer, and aluminum.

The boom in artificial intelligence (AI) is also benefiting German suppliers. The Eurozone is projected to perform better than expected, with 2026 growth at 1.1 percent (plus 0.2 percentage points from July) and 1.2 percent growth the following year. While the overall economy stagnated in the first quarter, growth accelerated in the second quarter, mainly due to a sharp recovery in Ireland and ongoing momentum in Spain.

However, high energy prices and low consumer confidence continue to hinder growth in other Eurozone countries. The IWF attributes the global rebound not falling apart to several factors, including a more resilient global economy to energy shocks, higher oil production outside the Persian Gulf, tapping strategic reserves, and reduced consumption in China.

The organization forecasts global growth of 3.1 percent in 2026 (previously 3.0 percent) and 3.4 percent next year. The IWF sees a mixed picture of AI's impact on the economy: while there are measurable productivity gains in some sectors, the overall productivity boost from AI in economic figures is only tentative. The IMF warns of risks to markets if AI's hype proves unfounded and expectations are dashed, as it could lead to a sharp sell-off of tech stocks, dampening global economic growth.

No changes are expected for the US economy this year, with a 2.3 percent growth forecast for this year and 2.3 percent growth expected in 2027, slightly higher than previously anticipated. People will continue to spend money and businesses will invest heavily in new technologies, the economists say. The US government's policies, low-interest rates, and high firm productivity are supporting growth.

While the US sees only limited direct impacts from the energy crisis due to being a net energy exporter, poor countries and those reliant on foreign energy are facing much higher energy costs, weakening their purchasing power and causing widespread hunger.