IMF warns poverty risks persist despite Nigeria’s economic stability

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned that rising prices for essential goods could deepen poverty and food insecurity in Nigeria, despite recent improvements in the country's macroeconomic stability and favorable external trade conditions. The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook report, titled 'Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices', revealed that while Nigeria's macroeconomic stability has strengthened, the rising cost of basic necessities continues to exacerbate poverty and food insecurity.

The report highlighted that Nigeria's favourable terms-of-trade position offers some support to economic activity, particularly amid fluctuations in international commodity prices. However, the IMF cautioned that stronger macroeconomic fundamentals alone do not guarantee enhanced household welfare, especially when essential commodity prices remain high.

Nigeria is projected to grow by 4.2 percent in 2026, up from 4.0 percent in 2025, and 4.3 percent in 2027. The report also projected that Nigeria's current account surplus would increase to 7.0 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026, from 4.8 percent in 2025, before moderating to 4.4 percent in 2027. The IMF emphasized that targeted and temporary financial support is necessary to assist vulnerable households, while strengthening social protection systems to better respond to future economic shocks.