IMF says AI investment propping up global growth, but war and debt threaten outlook
The global economy will still manage to top 3% real GDP growth this year as strong AI investment offsets the energy shock from ‌the war in the Middle East, but downside risks are mounting and more countries are being left behind and vulnerable to rising debt loads, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts global real GDP growth to exceed 3% in 2026, driven by robust investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. However, the outlook faces mounting risks due to ongoing conflict in the Middle East, rising debt levels, and unequal benefits from AI advancements. Despite oil prices remaining above $100 per barrel, the IMF forecasts a global growth rate of 3.1% for 2026, up from 3.0% in July's forecast.
The most optimistic projection from April posits 3.5% growth, while the 2027 forecast remains stable at 3.4%, matching the July prediction. Key advanced economies such as South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, and Thailand, which are major contributors to AI hardware, are expected to benefit from the AI investment surge. However, the global economy's resilience is being tested by the prolonged conflict, which may exacerbate inflation, slow growth, and widen the gap between countries reaping AI benefits and those left behind.
Written by urgent.news from Bangkok Post Business's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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