IMF raises 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced an increase in its global growth forecast for 2026, raising it by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1%. This projection is detailed in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, titled "Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices." In the report, the IMF anticipates global growth to decline from 3.5% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, before resuming an upward trajectory to 3.4% in 2027.

The projected growth for 2027 remains unchanged from July but is 0.2 percentage points higher than the April estimate.

Growth in advanced economies is expected to increase to 2.1% in 2026, but it is anticipated to decelerate to 1.8% in 2027. Conversely, emerging market and developing economies are forecast to see a slowdown to 3.7% in 2026, followed by a rebound to 4.4% in 2027. The IMF explained that the global economy is undergoing growth reallocation, influenced by each country's exposure to the war-driven energy shock and AI-related demand.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva highlighted during the annual IMF and World Bank Group Annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, that the acceleration of investment in AI infrastructure is a crucial factor in maintaining global economic growth near 3%. The report also projected global headline inflation to increase from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, but then decrease to 4.1% in 2027.