Ghana’s outlook brightens as IMF raises growth forecast to 5.7%, projects 4.8% inflation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its growth forecast for Ghana in 2026 to 5.7%, a 1.1 percentage point increase from April's projection of 4.6%. This upward revision is accompanied by a more modest inflation forecast, now at 4.8% by year-end, down from the previous 7.9%. The brighter economic outlook is attributed to fiscal discipline, growth-oriented public spending, and robust earnings from commodity exports, particularly gold.

These gains have bolstered Ghana's trade balance and bolstered external reserves, providing a buffer against potential shocks. The commitment of Ghana to targets under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) has also contributed to this revised outlook. The improvement comes after the country posted a strong first-half performance, with the economy expanding by 6.0% in the second quarter of 2026, bringing the growth rate for the first half of the year to 6.2%.

However, the IMF advises against over-reliance on gold earnings, urging the government to diversify export earnings to maintain sustainable growth and resilience. The Fund projects that Ghana's growth rate will ease to 5.2% in 2027. The revised inflation forecast suggests a further easing of price pressures, with the year-end rate expected to fall to 4.8%, below the government's and Bank of Ghana's medium-term target range of 6% to 10%.