Ethiopia: Eritrean Incursions Raise Fears of a Wider Regional War in Ethiopia

Addis Ababa - Three grim scenarios have emerged on how renewed conflict in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region could evolve. Last week, Eritrean forces crossed the border into Tigray while Ethiopia responded with drone strikes. Eritrea denies the incursion, accusing Ethiopia of declaring war to invade the Red Sea port of Assab. Despite this, local sources report Eritrean involvement in clashes across Tigray.

The humanitarian impact is massive, with four years after the last war ending in 2022, about a million people remain displaced and nearly four million require urgent aid. A severe upcoming drought could cause famine pockets. The conflict's development hinges on multiple factors. The capture of Tigrayan regional capital Mekelle last month by federal forces and Tigray Peace Force, the TPLF's pro-government militia, doesn't signal the end of the fight.

The TPLF leadership has already fled to the countryside. This brings Eritrean forces into the conflict, seen as allies of the TPLF. The return to war signals the collapse of the 2020-22 ceasefire, which failed to establish lasting peace. Tensions between Addis Ababa and the TPLF have risen over time, as have internal divisions within Tigray - evidenced by the Tigray Peace Force's formation.

A new anti-government coalition, the Alliance for Survival, includes seven armed opposition groups, including the TPLF, Fano, OLA, and others from Benishangul-Gumuz, the Somali region's ONLF, and Uguugumo - an Afar rebel group based in Eritrea. This coalition contrasts sharply with the last war's alliance of Eritrean forces and Amhara militia.

The new alliance aims to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government, mirroring the ideological confusion seen in Abiy's Prosperity Party. The political differences span key issues like the constitution, interregional territory disputes, and identity politics legitimacy. Militarily, the TPLF and Fano strategy seeks to create a connected rebel corridor linking southern Tigray with northern Wollo in Amhara, close to Addis Ababa.

The federal army has penetrated deep into Tigray, but Fano has taken control of several towns in southern Wollo and northern Shewa in Amhara. Tensions also extend regionally. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan of supporting the alliance, closing its Eritrean embassy and expelling an Egyptian diplomat. In response, these countries joined Somalia to issue a joint declaration warning against Addis Ababa's expansionist ambitions.

When Abiy became prime minister eight years ago, he had strong regional ties, including a political transition in Sudan, a tripartite pact with Eritrea and Somalia, and a Nobel Peace Prize for his Eritrea rapprochement. However, his efforts to scale back the Amhara paramilitary forces, seen as sidelining the region, led to a Fano insurgency.

Eritrea, despite longstanding enmity toward the TPLF, joined the conflict in 2020 alongside Amhara paramilitaries. The UAE, another ally, provided Ethiopia with combat drones, giving Addis Ababa a significant military advantage. The conflict's origins, Abiy's regional goodwill, and subsequent actions have led to a complex web of tensions with far-reaching humanitarian and geopolitical consequences.