Despite new record, Port of LA chief warns of tariff-driven planning risk

In September, the Port of Los Angeles handled its highest volume on record, processing 1.42 million TEUs, surpassing any other single month. Executive Director Gene Seroka attributed the surge to lower tariffs, resilient consumer demand, and a shift in cargo away from constrained canal routes. September imports climbed 19% year-over-year, while exports increased by 10%.

July through September marked the port's strongest quarter ever, with nearly 3 million TEUs. Through September 2026, the port's volume stood at nearly 8.1 million TEUs, a 3% increase from the same period in 2025. Seroka anticipates October volumes of around 900,000 TEUs, driven by typhoon disruptions in Asia, cargo "roll pools" before China's holiday, and holiday-season replenishment.

Notably, Vietnam has become the port's second-largest trading partner behind China, with Thailand entering the top five for the first time. Vietnam's volume has quadrupled over the past decade, while China's share of port business has decreased from 60% to 40%. Harvard Business School Professor Willy Shih highlighted that companies are now optimizing for options due to frequent policy changes, making long-term commitments challenging.

Shih noted that shifts away from China often reflect changes in final assembly rather than a true reduction in upstream dependence. Tariffs remain a significant source of uncertainty for importers, who make rapid decisions based on cost, demand, and policy deadlines. Ocean carriers and shippers are increasingly transferring cargo to Los Angeles from the Panama Canal due to drought-related constraints and higher fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict.

The port's operations are generally smooth, with healthy truck turns and large vessels turning in about four days. However, Seroka cautioned that rail dwell times require close monitoring as the port handles holiday cargo inland.