Central banks should avoid reacting too strongly to headline inflation – IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised central banks to refrain from reacting excessively to abrupt shifts in headline inflation, especially when these changes are caused by fluctuating energy costs. However, they should intervene if persistent inflation begins influencing expectations or wage negotiations, or if technological advancements begin transferring effects from headline to core inflation.

The IMF suggests that central banks should be more responsive if inflation expectations are eroded by the post-pandemic economic situation, as this could be detrimental should similar shocks arise in the future. This is because it would jeopardize the credibility of monetary policy.

If adverse economic impacts from the war or the emergence of financial risks take hold, leading to a slowdown in growth, a softening of labor markets, and consequently, a reduction in underlying inflationary pressures, the IMF suggests that central banks could have room to consider easing monetary policy. This easing, however, should be gradual and data-driven, and should aim to return inflation to its target level.

Central banks are currently focused on implementing inflation-targeting policies to control rising prices. This typically involves decreasing the money supply circulating in the economy and raising borrowing costs. The IMF emphasized that central banks should clearly explain how new data influence the risk balance, what would prompt a policy change, and how they differentiate between short-term price effects and broader inflationary pressures.

This approach, according to the IMF, can help prevent households, businesses, and financial markets from misinterpreting conditional policy signals as unconditional commitments. Central banks are facing growing fiscal costs and electoral pressures in many countries, which may lead to renewed calls for accommodating higher public debt or tolerating inflation above target.

The IMF underlined that maintaining the legal and operational independence of central banks and shielding monetary policy from political interference and fiscal dominance is crucial.