Budget goodies no guarantee of votes for PH, say analysts

Analysts suggest that the financial aid and perks in the upcoming 2027 federal budget could boost public opinion towards Pakatan Harapan, but might not convert into votes during the subsequent general election (GE16), if an early election is called. Awang Azman Pawi, an analyst from Universiti Malaya, suggests that public sentiment could change based on factors such as the cost of living, economic performance, leadership integrity, and political developments.

He points out that Barisan Nasional also utilized similar measures during their tenure, such as BR1M cash aid, Kedai Rakyat 1Malaysia groceries, and one-stop urban transformation centers, but this did not guarantee the populace's support, as evidenced by the grand coalition's loss in the 2018 election. Despite the 2027 budget being a government initiative, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who also chairs Pakatan Harapan, presiding over the finance ministry, the budget could mark Anwar's last before the voters head to the polls, should he decide to call an early election.

The 2027 budget, set to be described as an "election budget," anticipates an expenditure of RM460 billion, a 10% rise from the 2026 budget. The budget aims to alleviate cost-of-living pressures and raise disposable incomes. Of the targeted groups, Tawfik Yaakub, also from Universiti Malaya, expects the B40 low-income group, civil servants, government pensioners, young voters, and families with school-going children to respond positively, as the announced benefits address their immediate financial needs.

Yet, receiving assistance does not automatically translate into political support, he adds. Government supporters might perceive the measures as evidence of the administration's concern for the populace, while critical voters could view them as a political strategy ahead of the 2028 election. Tawfik posits that while this could attract some undecided voters, it would depend on broader economic conditions, including prices, wages, and job opportunities.