Battle lines shift in House races as Republicans retreat from front-line districts

Des Moines, Iowa (AP) — Republicans were pulling back from several key U.S. House races on Tuesday, while Democrats were hustling to raise funds to support candidates who had faced early setbacks. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House Republican super PAC, discontinued advertising in four districts from the Midwest to the East Coast and doubled down on 16 other races across Texas to Pennsylvania.

In contrast, Democrats' House campaign committee is focusing on securing openings in Republican-held districts and rallying millions of dollars in the final stretch to launch a final advertising push, which could secure a half-dozen more seats.

Experts suggest that the financial shift reflects a more defensive stance by Republicans, who have already lowered their expectations in U.S. Senate races, and heightened aggression from Democrats, aiming to exploit President Donald Trump's declining approval ratings. "A lot of seats are competitive, and only a few — maybe three — are potential Republican pickups," noted David McIntosh, president of the conservative Club For Growth, citing voter dissatisfaction with the economy and Republican discontent with Congress' failure to pass Trump’s SAVE Act related to voter registration.

Strategists like Stu Sandler, who works on House and statewide races, agree that the money being spent reveals where the contest is heating up. For instance, the Congressional Leadership Fund has halted advertising in Iowa's 1st District, where three-term Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is battling Democrat Christina Bohannan in a rematch of the closest race in the nation in 2022.

Similarly, the group will no longer spend in New Jersey's 7th District, where second-term Republican Rep. Tom Kean faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett. Kean's unexplained four-month absence from Congress, attributed to mental health concerns, has raised questions about his support for Trump's tariffs and the Iran war.

These developments have cost the Congressional Leadership Fund over $13.3 million in spending, accounting for more than 12% of its total expenditures through October 13. The group is concentrating its resources in districts where President Trump narrowly defeated Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in 2024. Sandler believes that Republicans must mobilize voters who typically participate in presidential elections but often skip midterms.

"It's clear they have not been under-resourced," Sandler said, emphasizing that Republican resources are at an all-time high in midterms.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is optimistic about capturing at least a dozen more races. To facilitate this effort, the DCCC launched a $17 million fundraising drive, with an October 22 deadline, to boost advertising in previously unattainable districts. Courtney Rice, DCCC communications director, explained that the funds are intended to amplify ads in districts where Republicans have historically dominated. "Our goal is to reach the next level," Rice stated.

One such district is Ohio's 10th, represented by 12-term Republican Rep. Mike Turner. Democrats see Turner as vulnerable despite his resilience and a significant victory over Democrats two years ago. President Trump carried the district by six percentage points in 2024. Turner did not commence advertising until late September, later than many other competitive House incumbents. The National Republican Congressional Committee began spending in the district recently.