Ancestral State Reconstruction under Localized Evolutionary Change: Error Patterns and Their Control by Tree Partitioning
Localized evolutionary changes can distort ancestral state reconstruction (ASR) because conventional continuous-trait methods generally treat branchwise changes as draws from a shared background process. A disproportionately large change confined to a single branch therefore creates localized model misspecification, but how the resulting errors vary among reconstruction paradigms and phylogenetic…
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