Which war is having the biggest impact on diesel prices - Iran or Ukraine?
Both conflicts have led to less diesel being exported - but the data shows more has been lost from the Middle East.
A comparison of the war in Ukraine and the conflict with Iran reveals that the latter has had a more significant impact on global diesel prices. While both conflicts have contributed to a reduction in diesel exports, the drop in supplies from Gulf states due to the war with Iran has been more substantial. The sharp decline in diesel exports from the Middle East, particularly from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman, is largely attributed to the US-Iran conflict.
The waterway through the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for the flow of refined diesel, has been disrupted by Iranian strikes on tankers, resulting in a significant reduction in exports. In contrast, Russia's diesel exports have also declined, but the impact on global diesel prices is comparatively lesser. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated the situation by taking Russian refineries offline, further intensifying the pressure on global energy markets.
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