U.S. private equity deal value was down 14.1% in Q3, PitchBook says
U.S. private equity—with more than $3 trillion in assets under management—has been locked in a cycle of geopolitical uncertainty and possible rate hikes.
In Q3 2026, U.S. private equity deal and exit values were down 14.1% and 13.6% year-over-year, respectively, according to PitchBook data. The headwinds plaguing the sector include geopolitical uncertainty, possible rate hikes, and a rapidly concentrating market with limited exits. PitchBook analyst Kyle Walters explained that the asset class's annual growth rate has slowed from a 12% rate over the past decade to about half of that now.
Fundraising has become increasingly challenging, with limited exits and reduced capital for deployers to contend with. While large firms like KKR have managed to meet fundraising goals, the sector still faces turbulence, potentially brought on by new interest rate hikes. If a rate hike occurs, the outlook for Q4 may mirror Q3's sluggishness, albeit still above the doldrums seen in 2022 and 2023.
PE professionals have largely anticipated this trend, and should rates remain unchanged, transactions are expected to continue, albeit at a reduced scale.
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